Avilia confident--tightly packed models
Posted by
Mike_Doran on 8/21/2009, 12:24 pm
Interesting. This to me gets into some of the non linear discussions . . . all the models make in some areas similar assumptions. The front in the CONUS might be set but what if the whole ITCZ shifts west?
This is what I do know from hard experience over the years. In short time frames, the models are pretty good. In terms of more than 3 days, they are so so. Over 5 days--crap. I don't care who the forecaster is.
But my guess and guess only would be that xray activity is going to stop and be left with elevated solar winds and that the storm WEAKENS more than the models. But it could go the other way, too. There is no scientific basis for prediction, you can only report the space weather at this point (at least I can't tell you what it is going to do, there maybe someone who is more an expert on solar outputs than I who could tell you). |
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In this thread:
Big jump back up in core temp -
JAC,
8/21/2009, 10:45 am- Hottest TC I have ever seen. Anti-cyclone coming back. - JAC, 8/21/2009, 1:08 pm
- Starting its West-Carib Tap-In - JAC, 8/21/2009, 12:01 pm
- Air Ahead - JAC, 8/21/2009, 11:54 am
- VIS & IR - JAC, 8/21/2009, 11:35 am
- ADT turning around - JAC, 8/21/2009, 11:02 am
- Latest SHIPS --> low shear next 36 hrs - JAC, 8/21/2009, 10:58 am
- Re: Big jump back up in core temp - CMJ, 8/21/2009, 10:48 am
- 11AM - JAC, 8/21/2009, 10:50 am
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