Re: Local NWS say 3 coastal system from today-Monday
Posted by
Fred on 10/15/2009, 7:55 am
Not going to a pretty weekend.But im not complaining!
000 FXUS61 KOKX 150743 AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 343 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion -- CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS WILL TRACK SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE FIRST WILL PASS BY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE SECOND LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AND THE THIRD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. -- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... -- Changed Discussion -- MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THIS COMPLEX AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS STORM SYSTEM TODAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS DEEPENING TROUGH. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT CAN BE EXPECTED AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT IN PLACE.
FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY ORANGE COUNTY...PRECIP TYPE A CHALLENGE. AFTER LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESSES...AND MODEL FORECAST PROFILES ALONG WITH EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS...DO BELIEVE SNOW WILL AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN. MANY HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE ALL SNOW FOR A TIME...AND I DO BELIEVE WESTERN HALF OF ORANGE COUNTY COULD OBSERVE AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE MORE (2 TO 4 IN??) BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AND LACK OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. IF LATER TRENDS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY...AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOLLOWED A LAV/MET/MAV BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS EXPECTED. IN FACT...ANY HEAVIER PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTOGENESIS/DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LOWER TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS A GOOD 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED! -- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- TROUGH AMPLIFIES...AND SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...JUST OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. RAIN...RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONTINUES...THEN LIGHTENS A BIT FRIDAY AS THAT FIRST LOW PULLS AWAY. NAM/GFS/EC SIMILAR INTO SATURDAY WITH SECONDARY LOW...BUT INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT...CLOSER TO THE COAST SATURDAY. THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO PROGRESSIVE INVERTED TROUGH SCENARIO. CHC RAIN/RAIN AND SNOW INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN LIKELY TO CAT POPS WARRANTED ONCE AGAIN SAT. OVERALL RAINFALL OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH...AND 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH QUITE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL...A PROLONGED STRETCH OF WET WEATHER EXPECTED.
MOS BLEND USED THIS TIME PERIOD...20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. -- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO POINT TO THE FORMATION OF A CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS QUITE CLOSE THIS RUN. GGEM MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN GFS/EC AS THEY FORECAST SOUTHERN LOW MOVES ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES PRIMARY LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BY ALL MODELS. PRIOR TO THAT THOUGH...RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A PERSISTENT NE FLOW. POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME.
MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW FLATTENS TUE-WED AS PAC JET ENERGY RACES EASTWARD. HI PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO WED.
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH A NE FLOW AND RAIN. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TUE AND WED. -- End Changed Discussion --
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In this thread:
A Noreaster for the Weekend? -
JAC,
10/13/2009, 7:30 am- Watch MIMIC-TPW for a roll off the coast - JAC, 10/15/2009, 8:11 am
- 1" to 3" NY/PA, 35 knots Cape Cod - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:55 am
- Re: Local NWS say 3 coastal system from today-Monday - Fred, 10/15/2009, 7:55 am
- Re: A Noreaster for the Weekend? - Fred, 10/14/2009, 8:31 pm
- Re: A Noreaster for the Weekend? - Fred, 10/14/2009, 8:55 am
- Already in the Upper Midwest - JAC, 10/14/2009, 7:55 am
- Coast-to-Coast Winter: Snow for NY & PA, GFS is aggressive on Surface Low - JAC, 10/14/2009, 7:44 am
- Re: A Noreaster for the Weekend? - Fred, 10/14/2009, 7:37 am
- At this point: Cape Cod Saturday Morning - JAC, 10/13/2009, 7:35 am
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