San Juan NWS taking note
Posted by JAC on 6/11/2010, 7:55 pm
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUN 11 2010

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE SEEN OVR THE ERN ATLC ONE ALONG 35W AND
ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE ONE ALONG 25W. AN 1134Z ASCAT PASS THIS
MORNING SHOWED A BROAD SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
ALONG 35W AND A WINDSAT PASS AROUND 0738Z SHOWED A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH THE ONE ALONG 25W. ALTHOUGH JUNE TC CLIMATOLOGY
IS STRONGLY AGAINST DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES IN THIS PART OF THE ATLC
THE EXPECTATIONS OF A BUSY HURRICANE SEASON HAVE ME LOOKING AT
THIS PART OF THE ATLC EARLIER THAN I WOULD NORMALLY DO. THE 12Z
GFS SHOWS WEAK DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 35W. WHILE
THE WAVE LACKS SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION AND HAVE NOT PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A DISTURBANCE THE ASCAT PASS
SHOWED A REALLY NICE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH. GIVEN THE LACK
OF SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE ATLC AND WARM SSTS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AT ALONG 50W ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LVL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN ATLC.









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Wave Emerging off Africa - all Globals Forecasting Development this Weekend - JAC, 6/11/2010, 7:21 am
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