PREDICT Dropsonde Yesterday (CIMSS Report)
Posted by JAC on 9/4/2010, 8:43 am
CIMSS upper level winds show the Earl outflow that's forced an upper level trough down into the Atlantic.

This is the main source of uncertainty in track and is primarily responsible for the sluggish progression of Gaston.

Soundings show a mid level dry intrusion at about 400-500 hPa that penetrates a good way into the storm, but the below sounding shows a fully moist and unstable sounding from a convective area within the circulation.

The dry air is across a tight boundary between the moist pouch and SAL air that dominates in a 180 degree arc to the north.

Convection has been sporadic and divergence aloft has been weak with the light guiding flow.

Among the models, GFS is most ambitious about Gaston.

GFS depicts a relatively stronger vorticity of Gaston while ECMWF has is it weaker and more elongated vorticity.

NOGAPS suggests the weakest situation among the three.

But the tracks of the models are pretty similar and all suggests very slow westward motion (~ 3-4 m/s).







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Gaston gathering tonight - Jake, 9/3/2010, 11:39 pm
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