Re: The problem with T.D. 15
Posted by
JAC on 9/23/2010, 4:48 pm
Tom:
Your absolutely right, there is no inflow from the EPAC.
I am been looking at the 850mb vorticity models too and they all do that crazy Yucatan crap.
It is a very unusual twist north right there and one that is hard to explain.
IMHO, because this is a top down development, the vorticity is taking time to get to the surface.
That is why at the moment, it looks great on SATs but Recon showing weak surface winds.
It really needs another 48 hrs to get going and be solid at the surface.
The anti-cyclone should be the kicker to get it there.
Once it gets to the surface, the vorticity should build quickly in height.
Given the high OHC east of the Yucatan, I think very possible.
At that point the cut-off low will then be able to tug on him very quickly and that is why the sharp turn north.
The next question is what happens when the two get close to each other.
If too close, the cut-off low will squash the TC, I think that is what Euro is saying.
However, if they stay far enough apart, the cut-off low will suck the outflow from the TC and intensify it.
That scenario is still too early to tell at this point.
Just my two cents, want to hear more from you on it.
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The problem with T.D. 15 -
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