Something has to give ....
Posted by
LawKat on 8/3/2011, 11:45 pm
You can only bend a line so far before it breaks, or in this case, becomes unlikely.
Emily is bordering on missing the weakness in the ridge right now. She is stalled because she is most likely at the southern edge of the weakness but not deep enough to have any pull effects.
If the ridge regains its strength in any way, she is going to move west again, and I think that may be part of her slow movement as well right now, with a light easterly flow still hanging around in the weakness.
She is really blossoming tonight, but two nights in a row, that did has not produced a strong storm the next morning.
The NHC can only leave their line as the far east outlier for so long before it doesn't make sense to any more. The west shift says Florida is in play. Now, the NHC are the experts and they have stayed as an outlier and been right plenty of times. They've missed too.
If the 200AM model runs come in with another shift to the left, I think 500AM will bring the NHC moving in live with that set of consistent westward shift.
I don't know where she lands, but she is really hanging around something fierce. My best guess is a Florida landfall, but I'm not ready to say whether the ridge will have re-strengthened or not. She's already at 71W. Miami is at 80W. That's 703 miles roughly. Plenty of distance to turn, but not enough distance that the turn can happen slowly. Every .1 of longitude W she goes is another roughly 10 miles of space she gives up to turn in.
Even though she is lowly tropical storm, she has some potential to get worse, and tomorrow will still be a long day for the NHC. |
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