Irene morning Analysis
Posted by Jake on 8/21/2011, 10:44 am
Her heading is more of 290-300 or WNW this has maintained since early this morning. This also increases impact to PR as guidance shows her reaching 75mph or 50/50 of the intensity models indicate whthin 24hrs. However, I see a shift north the first 72-96hrs which could track Irene across the southern coast of PR and along the northern coast of DM  with a more poleward track thereafter.

A mid -level ridge is steering her on  WNW heading, but this ridge will weaken as a shortwave trough passes through the NE CONUS and re-builds through 72hrs as the trough lifts NE.. This will slow her forward speed within 24-36hrs. A second shortwave is forecast to weaken the ridge again and cause a more poleward motion.

Irene has entrained dry air during the early morning, as convection has eroded on the western side of the center. However, a large convective band on the N and E side of the center should rap around the center today and once this occurs strengthening is line. The upper air dynamics are less favorable this morning as mid-level shear is less than 5kts, but upper level shear has increased to16kts from the SSW and dry air entrainment.

Guidance continues to show an upper high moving in tandem with Irene and becomes even more favorable after 36hrs. Question is how much of the center cross DM, as this will determine how strong she gets. I see Irene reaching major status once she gets passed DM..

See intensity image below..



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Irene morning Analysis - Jake, 8/21/2011, 10:44 am
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