Re: Irene morning Analysis
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/21/2011, 1:55 pm
| Makes sense and obviously what the models believe...but that sounds like why it will not turn to the North rather than why it is going to turn more westerly from current track, doesn't it? I must sound more argumentative than I feel...just thinking of the importance of development and how important interaction with PR and Hisp. is. We are too close those land areas for the models or NHC to be missing it, I know. It's normally the reverse at this longitude, though. They are normally calling for the turn to the north off an extrapolated westerly track and that is a lot easier to swallow as we are just talking timing then. Turning this one back to the left is touger for me to buy and there is a huge difference in intensity potential with the question over the next 24 hours. Now is the time to know and I am not hearing anything from NHC about it except the one "redeveloped more to the north" stuff in earlier discussion. They have the recent track and are pretty much just following TCON so far, which is more SW with every minute, isn't it? The human analysis isn't reaching us. I guess it won't until the UK and GFD give up the GOM and they all give up the westerly tracks. Right now, it's not that the models are shifting east as much as they are going to have to shift to the north. For them to maintain a westerly track from the current and probably near-term positions would really look scary. It would look strong and need a REAL right turn quickly sliding above PR, HISP, and Cuba. |
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Irene morning Analysis -
Jake,
8/21/2011, 10:44 am Post A Reply
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