Re: gianmarc
Posted by Gianmarc on 8/23/2011, 9:24 pm
I am born and raised in Brooklyn, NY. Lived there for more than 20 years. I remember Hurricane Gloria well and how even that cat 1, which hit well east of Brooklyn, still caused huge water problems along the Belt Parkway and Shore Road. Also blew out windows and smashed trees into cars throughout my neighborhood.

The key issue for Manhattan would be water--the surge coming out of a Cat 2 that hits NYC directly would almost certainly be a historic catastrophe.

I think that ultimately we will see more of a 1938 track where the system it begins heading NE but then gets tugged back to the west. I agree with Jim that irene does not appear as though it will be nearly as intense when it approaches Long Island as the 1938 storm was.

Interestingly, it looks like the dynamic that will tug it west actually will NOT be the Bermuda high, but rather yet another trough that comes in behind Irene and attracts her back to the left as she runs up the eastern seaboard, planting her squarely over Long Island and New England. This is what the most recent NHC discussion suggests, and it's precisely the sort of track that panned out in 1938.

From tonight's NHC discussion:
SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE.

1938 track:


Another important storm to keep in mind is the 1821 hurricane that hit NYC head on as a cat 2. Though the 1821 storm struck at low tide, it still flooded NYC up to Canal Street and produced a storm surge of 29 feet in locations along the Jersey coast and it produced a 13-foot storm surge in merely one hour in Battery Park. The surge in Battery Park undoubtedly would have been higher had the storm not struck at low tide.

1821 Hurricane Track:



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gianmarc - TFG, 8/23/2011, 8:38 pm
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