Re: Caribbean Disturbance
Posted by weatherwindow on 6/20/2012, 4:07 pm
hello all.....as of the 12Z, the gfs and the ecmwf have converged on both a stronger system and a fla panhandle thru tampa bay cone for landfall in the 6-7 day timeframe. the models are suggesting mslp in the low 990s equating to 60+kts and certainly not precluding a minimal hurricane. however, the global models are very inexact predictors of intensity. currently, the outliers are the cmc suggesting a southeast texas lanfall of similiar intensity and the ukmet, suggesting a freeport landfall of a much weaker system. nogaps, on the other hand, predicts no development of a weak trough in the eastern GOM. the important thing to glean from the recent runs is the indication of a strengthening tropical storm in the GOM early next week. Sat imaging indicates two(2) competing incipient centers. the first is approx 150 mi wsw of key west, north of western cuba, drifting slowy wnw and the second is just offshore of the west central yucatan peninsula. it is uncertain which will eventually dominate however, recon is scheduled fri(6/22) for a low level invest at 24degN 89degW. Currently the eastern center is the focus of marginally higher vorticity. one area or the other will likely be tagged as an invest later today or tomorrow.....should prove to be an interesting week for all of our friends around the GOM....rich
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Caribbean Disturbance - Jake, 6/19/2012, 8:52 pm
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