Tampa Bay NWS
Posted by cypresstx on 6/21/2012, 8:21 am
it's still too far out to know... models WILL change... need to take a deep breath...


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

000
FXUS62 KTBW 210722
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO. OVERALL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN DOUBT
DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. BUT WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...AND BROAD LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EACH DAY WITH GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA AREA
SOUTH. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE LOW
BEING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY WITH INCREASING
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE
CENTER TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.


.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MAIN INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF A SURFACE LOW THAT IS DEPICTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS
THE LOW CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...BUT FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND TRACK THE
LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SETUP WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS TAKES THE LOW INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLEARS THE AREA OF RAIN
BY SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE LOW OVER LAND SOMEWHERE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING AND THEN CONDITIONS FINALLY
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND THE LAST
PART REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER...BUT HAVE KEPT AFTERNOON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND
AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY...AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BUT LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST AS DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL GREATLY AFFECT WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  89  75 /  60  50  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  70  50  80  60
GIF  89  75  90  74 /  50  30  60  30
SRQ  88  76  88  75 /  70  50  80  60
BKV  89  72  90  73 /  50  30  80  60
SPG  87  77  88  78 /  70  50  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
    BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
    ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
    OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
    TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
    SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
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Caribbean Disturbance - Jake, 6/19/2012, 8:52 pm
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