Re: Florence Cat 5 landfall probability rising
Posted by
Beachlover on 9/10/2018, 1:42 am
Following is from the 11 p.m. 9/9 NHC Discussion, and implies a strong Cat. 3, so I'm not sure why LawKat is talking about a "growing" likelihood of a Cat 5 landfall:
Now that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air, rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind shear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing, and very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its maximum intensity. After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the dual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward outflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level environment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result in a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is still forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous hurricane makes landfall. |
197
In this thread:
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.