If anyone saw that image when first posted by the NHC, be aware they updated the last forecast point. (It updated automatically in your post since you linked it directly from the NHC) It did have an "H" rather than an "M" icon at first.
Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 17...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
Corrected day 5 intensity forecast in table.
Satellite and radar images indicate that the cloud pattern has
become better organized during the past several hours. This was
confirmed by data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane currently
investigating Dorian, which reported a flight-level wind of 72 kt
and a peak SFMR value of 60 kt. The estimated central pressure was
999 mb in the last fix. On this basis the initial intensity has
been adjusted upward to 60 kt. Only a slow strengthening is
anticipated today while Dorian is moving through the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands. However, once the cyclone reaches the
western Atlantic well east of the Bahamas, it will encounter a
favorable environment of low shear and warm waters, resulting in a
more marked intensification. The NHC foreast is more aggressive than
the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the
end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity
consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance.
Fixes from the reconnaissance plane indicate that Dorian has been
moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is
heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and
this motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. However, after
that time, all global models build a robust ridge over the western
Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more
to the west-northwest toward Florida and the southeast coast of the
United States. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a
powerful hurricane will be near the Florida or southeastern coast of
the United States. The new NHC track forecast is not significantly
different from the previous one, and it very closely follows the
multi-model consensus TVCA and the HCCA. Users are reminded not to
focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error
is around 200 miles.
Key Messages:
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands, Culebra, and Vieques today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico today with hurricane conditions possible.
2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern Untied
States later this week and into early next week.
3. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds is
increasing in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the
Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these
hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact
forecast track of Dorian's center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
$$
Forecaster Avila
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
...DORIAN VERY NEAR ST. CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the
U.S. Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
Vieques and Culebra
U.S. Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
Puerto Rico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
Puerto Rico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 64.5 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track,
Dorian should move near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
then continue over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern
Bahamas.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and continue strengthening during the next few days over the
Atlantic waters.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
primarily to the east of the center.
An Air Force plane just estimated a minimum central pressure of
999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:
Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila |