11:00 AM AST Tue May 19 - Post-Tropical, Last Advisory
Posted by cypresstx on 5/19/2020, 12:21 pm
NHC's Aurther Archive

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep
convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus
clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model
analyses.

The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model
consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN


BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

...ARTHUR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 68.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM NW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Arthur was located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 68.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24
km/h), and Arthur is expected to gradually turn southward and slow
down over the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are expected to affect portions
of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S. coasts during the next
day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN

29
In this thread:
First Storm Near Carolina Coastline? - Target, 5/10/2020, 9:32 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.