Re: PTC Fifteen
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/30/2022, 9:07 pm
Satellite floaters:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL152022#homePageLink
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al152022
At least the GFS is being more consistent now with this storm. I guess because now it is in the shorter range. Euro agrees to at the moment. In the past week or more, it's been all over the place when it comes to the extended range. At first it was with this potential tropical cyclone and then it was about things it either developed from it or in the vicinity. The GFS is still rather crazy at times in the extended range for other things in the Atlantic. But it keeps getting pushed back, now into mid-November. So hopefully that trend continues of it doing weird things in the long range but then they never happen.
Hopefully this storm stays no more than a category 1, though the forecast shear starting 18 hours from now is less than the forecast made by the SHIPS model 6 hours ago. NHC says the system may be small. Storms like that can ramp up more quickly than other storms, so it'll have to be watched carefully.
SHIPS intensity forecast:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D
Then click latest file for AL1522. |
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PTC Fifteen -
cypresstx,
10/30/2022, 6:12 pm Post A Reply
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