Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022
GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level
circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system
is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused
the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary
convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler
radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with
height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had
numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the
pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to
call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35
kt.
After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at
about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward
for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As
the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move
westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches
Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and
only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast.
Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic
conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level
humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still
have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern
quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen
the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for
the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous
forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the
high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of
the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official
forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend,
but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger
changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data
for the 12 UTC suite.
Key Messages:
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.
2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required by late today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 77.3W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Cayman Islands is discontinuing the Tropical
Storm Watch for Grand Cayman Island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within about 12 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 77.3 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south
of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Lisa could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.
RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across
portions of the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and eastern
Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Guatemala, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are expected, with localized totals of 6 inches. For
Belize, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with
localized totals as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.
SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake |