Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided
critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has
started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to
55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde
data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt
as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite
classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small
radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with
the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample
fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening
and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is
near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it
approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast,
but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are
increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast
is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a
post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly
thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No
significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low-
to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the
tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next
couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the
cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and
across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models
remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the
middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras
early Wednesday and possible along the coast of Belize by
Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern
Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

2. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where
the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern
portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into
Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical
Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize,
the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through
Thursday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 16.3N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.0N 88.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 17.0N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0000Z 17.0N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
1100 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 81.8W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Bay Islands.

The government of Guatemala has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to
a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire Caribbean coast.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Chetumal
to Puerto Costa Maya, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Chetumal to
Punta Herrero.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Puerto Barrios to Puerto Costa Maya

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire north coast of Honduras
* North coast of Guatemala
* Chetumal to Punta Herrero

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 81.8 West. Lisa is moving toward the
west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with some decrease
in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass south of the Cayman
Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early
Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further
strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a
hurricane overnight over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
continue to intensify on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are becoming likely along the
coast of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin along the northern coast of Honduras within the
Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and in Guatemala and Yucatan on
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of:

* 4 to 6 inches with local amounts to 10 inches across Belize, the
Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast
portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas.
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across the far
southeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras,
and central Guatemala
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could lead to flash flooding conditions primarily
across Belize into northern Guatemala, the southeast portion of the
Mexican state of Chiapas and the far southeast portion of the
Yucatan peninsula.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will likely raise water levels by as
much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of Belize in areas of onshore winds, with 2 to 4 feet
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in eastern Yucatan and 1
to 3 feet for the Bay Islands of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands and Central America for next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake