Area in western Gulf has a 50% chance of development
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/4/2024, 5:02 pm
Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

It now has an "X" associated with it. On the local news earlier today a meteorologist talked about a tropical depression in the East Pacific kind of crossing over, that never got a name, but I don't know if that is this in part. (as of typing this another meteorologist on another station said the same thing) And that other station locally over the past several days had been talking about two areas in the Gulf.

At some point previously the area of development was associated with something in the western Carib. Now we have an "X" for the western area instead.

Gulf satellite:
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector.php?sat=G16&sector=gm

Both the GFS and Euro now develop this area into a category one hurricane, based on its pressure, as of the latest runs. (12Z runs today, Friday) Those runs are focused at the moment on the Florida peninsula. But, the models have gone back and forth on the strength. Timing at the moment is on a Wednesday landfall. It's early in its development, yet since the potential landfall is not too far away, I guess it's time to mention it.

GFS:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn

Euro:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn
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Area in western Gulf has a 50% chance of development - Chris in Tampa, 10/4/2024, 5:02 pm
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