Invest 92L, 8am Sat - 70/90 over 2/7 days
Posted by
cypresstx on 10/5/2024, 10:00 am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
just the Gulf disturbance part:
1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
From NWS Tampa Bay Discussion: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
This axis of moisture that will drift over the area on Sunday will
remain for much of our work week. Models are coming into better
agreement on a potential tropical system forming on this boundary
during the work week. However, I want to emphasize that no one
should be focused on one deterministic run of any model as we
have seen very high variable on timing, strength, and if a
tropical system will even develop. For right now what we are
confident on is a prolonged heavy rainfall event that will last
from our Sunday through early on Thursday with widespread rainfall
amounts over 5 inches.
Most long range models show drier air starting to filter in by late
Thursday into Friday bringing an end to the cloudy and rainy
pattern.
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In this thread:
Area in western Gulf has a 50% chance of development -
Chris in Tampa,
10/4/2024, 5:02 pm- hope not, nobody needs this - cypresstx, 10/4/2024, 8:33 pm
- Re: hope not, nobody needs this - jimw, 10/5/2024, 8:59 am
- Now Invest 92L - Chris in Tampa, 10/4/2024, 11:38 pm
- Invest 92L, 8am Sat - 70/90 over 2/7 days - cypresstx, 10/5/2024, 10:00 am
- 70% now. - karen, 10/4/2024, 10:59 pm
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