Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and
ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force.
Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or
subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or
early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the
Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical
or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over
portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of
Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on
Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg