MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK
Posted by
JAC on 1/28/2011, 2:02 pm
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011
VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011
...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
NORTHEAST...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO
OF AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM NERN CANADA SWWD INTO THE
SWRN CONUS... LIKELY WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SRN CANADA/NRN
TIER CONUS FLOW AND WRN/SRN CONUS FLOW. THIS TROF WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY A MEAN RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN
CANADA ALBEIT WITH SOME CHANGE IN SHAPE OVER TIME. WHILE A GOOD
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN EVOLUTION... THERE IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW
NATURE OF THE NOAM PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED
BY ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE MEAN RIDGE BY
MID-LATE WEEK.
THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME
INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD.
TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD
ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS
WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW
ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO
BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN
PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR
NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES.
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In this thread:
Is it just me? -
Conclue,
1/27/2011, 6:41 pm- Strong Supercell probability Houston to Mobile - JAC, 1/30/2011, 7:31 pm
- Possible Large Freezing Rain Event. PV down to 500mb! - JAC, 1/30/2011, 10:50 am
- Massive Cold Surge for TX - JAC, 1/30/2011, 10:44 am
- HPC - JAC, 1/30/2011, 9:41 am
- 12Z GFS - CRAP!!!! - JAC, 1/29/2011, 1:14 pm
- MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK - JAC, 1/28/2011, 2:02 pm
- GFS is digging it - I am not. A+ (or Omega) on catching this Conclue! - JAC, 1/28/2011, 12:32 pm
- Going to kick a major dump - CRAP! - JAC, 1/28/2011, 7:19 am
- Re: Is it just me? - Conclue, 1/27/2011, 6:45 pm
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