HPC
Posted by JAC on 1/30/2011, 9:41 am
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
347 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN
THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST.  SRN
STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND
ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE
NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY
DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW
ENG BY MIDDAY WED.  A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN
GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO
THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG.  STRONG
DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN
FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW
CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC...
WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND
VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG.
00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS
EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO
W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS.
MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO
CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z
GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED...
SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH.  FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES
REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
MAJOR IMPACTS.  
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Is it just me? - Conclue, 1/27/2011, 6:41 pm
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