HPC
Posted by
JAC on 1/30/2011, 9:41 am
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 347 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011
00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST. SRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW ENG BY MIDDAY WED. A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG. STRONG DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC... WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG. 00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS. MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED... SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF MAJOR IMPACTS. |
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In this thread:
Is it just me? -
Conclue,
1/27/2011, 6:41 pm- Strong Supercell probability Houston to Mobile - JAC, 1/30/2011, 7:31 pm
- Possible Large Freezing Rain Event. PV down to 500mb! - JAC, 1/30/2011, 10:50 am
- Massive Cold Surge for TX - JAC, 1/30/2011, 10:44 am
- HPC - JAC, 1/30/2011, 9:41 am
- 12Z GFS - CRAP!!!! - JAC, 1/29/2011, 1:14 pm
- MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK - JAC, 1/28/2011, 2:02 pm
- GFS is digging it - I am not. A+ (or Omega) on catching this Conclue! - JAC, 1/28/2011, 12:32 pm
- Going to kick a major dump - CRAP! - JAC, 1/28/2011, 7:19 am
- Re: Is it just me? - Conclue, 1/27/2011, 6:45 pm
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