Re: Is Rina an October Storm or really a November Storm?
Posted by
weatherwindow on 10/28/2011, 8:48 am
| bobbi...i stand corrected, remind me never to bet against the euro again...my mistake for staying with the hwrf (as we discussed) vs the euro and the consensus. as noted, we have most certainly moved into november, likely as early as mid month. november has a climatological track for tropical cyclones: genesis in the southwestern caribbean, a short northwest to north track, an early recurve(approximately 18-20degN) toward east-central cuba - hispaniola, thru the central to southeastern bahamas and out ot sea . the problem is: november storms rarely follow it and november is noted for truly eccentric tropical cylclone tracks due to a highly progressive mid-latitude pattern dominated by full latitiude troughs. hence, i my faith in a climatologically typical track for october as represented by the hwrf and, for a short time, the gfdl was misplaced... oh, by the way, bobbi, speaking of eccentric tracks i hope you had a chance to see yesterdays 12Z gfs. oh it was special. a gordon 94 redux for ex-97 beginning about 168 hours. for those who missed gordon: genesis in the sw caribbean, nne to the neighborhood of extreme eastern cuba/windward passage, eccentric left turn north of cuba into the old bahama channel, then west-northwest thru the florida straits, crossing the lower keys, then recurve into sw florida, landfalling south of tampa.....rich |
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