Re: This has all the makings of....
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/24/2012, 9:15 pm
The surge aspect could be significant too. Locally, they have not done a great job up until now discussing that. TWC did talk about it better. They were talking about how even if the storm were further west, as for impact in Tampa the surge could actually be worse than if it were closer because it would have more opportunity to pile up water over more of the shallow shelf west of Florida. The storm size is large, so strengthening rapidly like previous storms we have seen over the years seems a bit less likely in terms of the wind, but the energy could go to expanding the wind field and making the winds stronger over a much wider area. In Ike, that was a major problem. Ike was not technically a major hurricane at landfall in Texas, due to that label associated with the SS hurricane wind scale. (why it is simply a wind scale now) But, it was a hurricane with major impacts. Again, not that it would be Ike, but something like Ike in terms of the surge being a lot higher than what you might ordinarily expect for a given wind. Tampa Bay, the Big Bend area, and other vulnerable bays, could have some rather high surges.

But again, it's still early. It's all up to Hispaniola / Cuba. The core is actually looking better and better as it approaches a Haiti landfall. But until it clears both, a bunch of uncertainty remains.
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This has all the makings of.... - canetrakker, 8/24/2012, 7:31 pm
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