Dorian/Disturbance Morning View
Posted by Jake on 7/28/2013, 12:06 pm
Strong disturbance / Dorian, nearing the northern leeward islands this morning. The cloud pattern and overall convection have not only increased but become more symmetrical, this is due to an increase in mid level moisture and a somewhat better upper level pattern. Although, an upper level low is situated west of the disturbance, there appears to be a small anticyclone slowly building over the disturbance. Visible imagery shows an increase in streamer cumulus; especially on the southern side of the convection. Therefore, would not be surprised if a new closed circulation occurs with continues convection aiding the inflow.

Finally, think a comeback although slow, is in store and recon may be needed today should this trend continue. Not done with Dorian, as overall conditions improve. Shear is veering towards a more favorable component and deep layer moisture is increasing alonG with warmer SST's.
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Dorian/Disturbance Morning View - Jake, 7/28/2013, 12:06 pm
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