Re: 50 / 50 chance of redevelopment now within 48 hours as of 8pm EDT on Sunday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2013, 11:07 pm
I haven't really looked at many models. (too busy working on model related stuff to actually look at the real time models) If it survives the shear it is up against at the moment, I think it will develop.

Shear
Upper: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Mid: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

SHIPS intensity forecast:
0Z on Monday: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/13072900AL9113_ships.txt
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

SHIPS graphically on a map:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=91&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=DSHP
(The version that takes land into account, V (KT) LAND in file above. Note though SHIP for if it were to stay over water, V (KT) NO LAND in file above.)

Intensity models:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2013&storm=91&latestinvest=1&display=wind_diagram&latestrun=1
And while SPC3 (bottom graph) looks odd for the track (I think due to when some parts of the averaged members are unavailable, but I do not know.), it is an intensity model. A pretty good one. Not every model is good in every circumstance of course, but it can't be ruled out.

But, Dorian has to survive the current shear first, which so far it is.
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Dorian/Disturbance Morning View - Jake, 7/28/2013, 12:06 pm
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