Re: Michael Ventrice did an update video also
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/19/2020, 9:25 pm
More blogs:

Jeff Masters:
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/

Levi Cowan:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/

Brian McNoldy:
http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/



It's kind of odd the GFS and Euro haven't done as much with these two invests. I don't keep up to date on the updates to models. The HWRF often makes very strong hurricanes while something is still an invest or very weak. That's more for when it gets more developed. CMC in the past likes to develop a lot of things.

Hurricane Michael was an example of something that came out of nowhere. It had a well forecast cone, but before that there was really no indication that we were about to have a storm of anything like that magnitude. So sometimes the models miss something like that.

I like to look at the NHC surface forecasts.

72 hour forecast:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
From: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/#graphical

And for the Ocean Prediction Center, here is there 72 hour surface forecast:
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.php?category=atlantic&product=atlsfcf72&days=1&loop=0
Actually a really big difference between the two with the timing of Invest 98L. NHC has it east of Antilles still. OPC has it just NE of Puerto Rico. OPC doesn't focus much on the tropics in their surface forecasts.

But OPC does have a 96 hour surface forecast here:
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.php?category=atlantic&product=atlsfcf96&days=1&loop=0
But again, I don't know how well they do with the tropics. That might be Invest 97L in the Bay of Campeche according to their 96 hour forecast. Not sure. GFS and Euro on their latest runs take Invest 97L into SE Texas without developing it, at least as of current runs as of posting. And both those global models still don't develop 98L long term, again as of posting this.

I was updating my site in the past few days and was adding information on current surface analysis and forecast surface analysis, the first two sections on this page, when I saw that the OPC has surface forecasts:
http://tropicalatlantic.com/other/



Twitch is mostly a platform people use to stream themselves playing video games. Occasionally I see some other things from there, but often just that.
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Hurricane in Gulf Aug. 23 ? - AlligatorPointer, 8/18/2020, 7:49 pm
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