ENSO and the Arctic Ice Sheet
Posted by Mike_Doran on 7/11/2009, 1:02 pm
Let's see if I can explain.  Things in the Arctic have been cold temperature wise.  From what I understand there is a string of below freezing that still hasn't broke up there, but the ice cap has been getting a lot of sun.  Some are saying that it's looking like inbetween 07 and 08, others like 05.  But it's way ahead of what it's been in the past as far as being ice free.  On a smaller trending scale, however, I have noticed this correspondence with positive SOI readings and colder SSTs Nina temperatures in regions of the tropical Pacific that count as such.  And I also have to point out El Cajan dam, as I have all spring, as significant here.

What I think occurs with an El Nino is the pathway that electrical currents have in the Pacific is much more conductive.  That way, regional lightning that creates electrical currents and potential differences in the Americas has a chance to 'leak' or move to the West Pacific and essentially stay in the tropics.  On the other hand, if conditions along the EPAC are NOT conductive, say, with La Nina, because the colder the oceans the less conductive they are, then regional strikes can go to cold core systems in the north Pacific or to severe weather or tropical storms over the Americas or in the Atlantic.  This THEN means that there is more cold air drawn from the north and more hot air pumped up there as well.  The thermodynamics of that means that the Arctic relatively melts compared to a more El Nino like setting.

Despite the long running days of a spotless sun this winter, therefore, as the SOI and SSTs showed up negative AND El Cajan dam prevented flow into the EPAC -- the river it dams flows there, we had a very sharp drop in sea ice in the Arctic.  Now with El Nino rearing it's head, and the El Cajan dam releasing it's trapped water, I think that the pace of that melting has slowed.  Sun spot activity has certainly increased from the winter, but it's not going to be what it was in cycle 23. 

Meanwhile, the drought in California persists.  El Nino in the summer and fall will mean tropical storms in the EPAC, which means that displacement currents are going to be taken away from the Pacific high and we get more cooler delta breezes.  The fire risks decrease.  And if it persists, it means rain for the Gulf Coast and particularly Texas this winter.  But don't look for that much relief for Texas.  I still think that El Cajan dam will be a very hard thing for Texas and it's drought . . .
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Electrics update on Arctic Ice Sheet - Mike_Doran, 6/26/2009, 6:13 pm
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