The complexity of couplings--I can do Molinari too
Posted by
Mike_Doran on 7/12/2009, 11:22 pm
http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/99183.pdf
"Demetriades and Holle (2005) found evidence to support the Molinari et al. (1999) hypothesis that a hurricane that has been fairly steady in intensity will remain fairly steady in intensity when little or no eyewall lightning is present. Therefore, a lack of eyewall lightning or very low eyewall lightning rates may be another valuable tool that can aid forecasters in hurricane nowcasting."
What is occurring? A capaciter holds charges in place with a dielectric in between. When a tropical storm reaches a strong intensity the clouds, the decarbonation, the charges in place all allow a strong organization of the storm which is BOTH electrical and baratropical. It's when the organization decreases does the capacitance in that organization tend to zero, and hence by simple model of a capaciter does the voltages tend to infinity and strikes short to ground.
Variable conditions of strikes away from the storm merely in the Atlantic basin do not tell the complete story, from space weather to a rising SOI which has regaional electrics meaning to the condcutivities of where the storm itself is. If a storm landfalls, again, capacitance runs to zip.
This is why the GLOBAL story of lightning tided to RI was such a cool one.
BTW Curry is an a hole in my book after what she said about Gray. JMO.
And Tom Evans is much better putting together a solid argument than insulting. Everygood idea has been tested by many many bad ones. But even a blind squirral finds a nut, so it's better to let the solid arguments than insult people as individuals. Any one can do that, and all it does is make us lose respect for one another. |
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