Forecast: Cat 3
Posted by JAC on 7/11/2009, 10:48 pm






BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

...CARLOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.0 WEST OR ABOUT
1045 MILES...1685 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

CARLOS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A MOTION
JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND CARLOS COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...10.5N 119.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  EP042009
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING.  A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC.
HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN.  THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT.

CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72
HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
AND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD
INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

CARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W    75 KT
12HR VT    12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W    90 KT
24HR VT    13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W  100 KT
36HR VT    13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W  105 KT
48HR VT    14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W  105 KT
72HR VT    15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W  100 KT
96HR VT    16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W    90 KT
120HR VT    17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Could Carlos be first US cane of season? - UMRSMASOrtt, 7/10/2009, 11:01 pm
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