CaneTalk: TUTT over HI could break up Carlos

TUTT over HI could break up Carlos

Posted by JAC on 7/11/2009, 11:35 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ OVER THE STATE WILL KEEP
THE AIRMASS UNSTABLE. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW WEAK
INVERSIONS RUNNING AROUND 12KFT.

FOR THE FAR EXTENDED...HURRICANE CARLOS IS FORECAST TO CROSS 140W
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY
MUCH ABOUT THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND THAT POINT. THE TUTT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK...CREATING A LARGE
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS STATE BETWEEN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS
AT THE SURFACE AND WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS.

In this thread:

Could Carlos be first US cane of season? - UMRSMASOrtt, 7/10/2009, 11:01 pm

Anti-cyclone forming now over COC - JAC, 7/12/2009, 8:07 am
- Should get shear back down - JAC, 7/12/2009, 8:31 am
Forecast: Cat 3 - JAC, 7/11/2009, 10:48 pm
- Eyewall cloud tops getting higher with pinhole eye - JAC, 7/11/2009, 11:11 pm
  - Re: Eyewall cloud tops getting higher with pinhole eye - Mike_Doran, 7/11/2009, 11:48 pm
Cat 1 - JAC, 7/11/2009, 4:38 pm
- RI? Raw T# = 5.8 - JAC, 7/11/2009, 4:40 pm
NWS.HONOLULU on Carlos - BP31, 7/11/2009, 3:48 pm
EMF look see at Carlos - Mike_Doran, 7/11/2009, 1:54 pm
HI needs to be on their toes for sure - JAC, 7/11/2009, 1:50 pm
- I doubt it - Mike_Doran, 7/11/2009, 2:01 pm
  - Mike Doran: your right - mysterious weakening - JAC, 7/12/2009, 10:06 pm
    - Weird looking secondary eyewall forming to the SE of COC - JAC, 7/12/2009, 10:11 pm
      - Re: Weird looking secondary eyewall forming to the SE of COC - Mike_Doran, 7/13/2009, 9:33 am
  - TUTT over HI could break up Carlos - JAC, 7/11/2009, 11:35 pm
  - Will be riding the edge of 500mb ridge - JAC, 7/11/2009, 11:24 pm
    - GFDL & HWRF Tracks - JAC, 7/11/2009, 11:30 pm
Tight Track- & Intensity-Guidance - JAC, 7/11/2009, 1:35 pm
Sweet Core --> Rapidly Organizing - JAC, 7/11/2009, 1:29 pm
- Impressive Eyewall Development - JAC, 7/11/2009, 1:44 pm
SST & OHC - JAC, 7/11/2009, 8:42 am

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