SSTs Or. El Nino: Which is Bigger Culprit?
Posted by
Gianmarc on 9/5/2009, 2:30 pm
I found Jim's discussion of reasons behind the struggles that Erika and prior systems have had in the basin this season to be very interesting. He noted that SSTs are also a bit cooler in parts of the basin this year and that this year's El Nino, while apparent, is not a particularly strong one.
Personally, though, I have always believed that if you put a storm over 90-degree waters but add ULLs, troughs and associated heavy shear such as we see surrounding the monstrous TUTT in the central Atlantic right now, you still will not see a hurricane. I also believe that if you give a storm ideal upper-level support with a ridge aloft and light shear but give it SSTs only in the 80-degree range, you are much more likely to see a hurricane (After all, we did see a "Hurricane Epsilon" in December, 2005). In that case, then, the upper-level environment would seem to be the most determinative factor concerning the health of a tropical cyclone.
Someone help me out here, especially the experts--SSTs or Shear, which is the more significant factor in the health of a tropical cyclone? |
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SSTs Or. El Nino: Which is Bigger Culprit? - Gianmarc, 9/5/2009, 2:30 pm Post A Reply
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