Re: SSTs Or. El Nino: Which is Bigger Culprit?
Posted by
Jake on 9/5/2009, 3:41 pm
G,
There's no doubt that shear is the most significant factor in tropical cyclone formation. Although, SST's are somewhat lower across parts of the basin, during this time of the year most of the basins SST's are 80 degrees or higher. But, like Ana, Danny and Erika, if the upper air environment is not conducive, system will struggle and discipate.
This year appears to have areas with small windows of opportunity, as we have seen with the above said systems. Only Bill was able to track through an area of conducive upper air support.
Its now September, the most active month of the season and most favorable overall across the basin. This year, it appears that a winter like trough pattern established itself early and as we move later into September, the long wave troughs will only deepen and amplify. In my opinion, the cape verde season is over as a central atlantic trough forms and deepens, this will likely shear or recurve those large waves coming off africa. Otherwise, we would have some monster canes rolling across the atlantic as in some previous years.
Should a major cane hit the US this year, it will likely come out of the western caribbean and affect florida. Just my opinion !!! |
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