JTWC Forecasting 140 Knts - TUTT reinforcing poleward outflow channel
Posted by JAC on 9/15/2009, 8:15 am








WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 014    
  02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 145.8E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 145.8E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  151800Z --- 18.5N 144.4E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  160600Z --- 19.7N 142.9E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  36 HRS, VALID AT:
  161800Z --- 21.1N 141.6E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  48 HRS, VALID AT:
  170600Z --- 22.8N 140.7E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
   ---
  72 HRS, VALID AT:
  180600Z --- 25.4N 140.4E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
   ---
  LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
  NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
  ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
  NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
   ---
  96 HRS, VALID AT:
  190600Z --- 28.5N 142.1E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
   ---
  120 HRS, VALID AT:
  200600Z --- 32.7N 145.4E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 145.4E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM
NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
LAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE RADIAL EXPANSION
OF UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
CELL IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF STY 15W AND IS STARTING TO
IMPROVE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, EVIDENT IN ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TUTT CELL APPEARS TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY, SO AS STY 15W TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN THE SEPARATION DISTANCE, DECREASING THE OUTFLOW
BENEFIT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE PRIMARY FACTORS, INCREASING
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE LEADING TO
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24 AND HELPING TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (KOPPU) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

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Super Typhoon Choi-Wan (ADT at Cat5) - JAC, 9/15/2009, 7:38 am
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