Re: Best Track at 140-knots (Solid Cat5)
Posted by JAC on 9/15/2009, 4:11 pm
WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 15W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 016    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  151800Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.2E



152100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 143.9E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 15W (CHOI-
WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE, WELL ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED
EYE. A 151602Z AQUA IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE-WALL WITH
BANDING EXTENDING RADIALLY FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST AND EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. STY
15W WILL START TO RECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR
AROUND TAU 48 AND WILL START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 72 HAS BEEN INCREASED SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
//
NNNN




BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
500 AM CHST WED SEP 16 2009

...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID-MORNING.

AT 400 AM CHST...1800Z...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
             115 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN AND
             235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN.

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 160 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER TYPHOON
CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.2 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.2 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 11 AM.

$$

WILLIAMS/MUNDELL



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Super Typhoon Choi-Wan (ADT at Cat5) - JAC, 9/15/2009, 7:38 am
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