TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN
Posted by JAC on 9/15/2009, 8:36 am
Agrihan (also spelled Agrigan) is a stratovolcano which forms an island in the Northern Mariana Islands in the Pacific Ocean. The entire island is a massive volcano which rises over 4,000 metres (13,120 ft) from the ocean floor, and is the fifth largest in the Marianas volcanic arc. At 965 metres (3,166 ft), its summit is the highest point in Micronesia. The volcano is topped by a large caldera, 1 x 2 km (0.6 x 1.2 mi) in size and about 500 metres (1,640 ft) deep.[1]

The island was evacuated in 1990 due to the threat of volcanic activity, although in the end no eruption occurred. A settlement has since been reestablished in one of the four original villages, and as of September 2005 there were nine inhabitants. Five years earlier, in the 2000 census no population was reported. The island has a total land area of 43.51 km (16.80 sq mi). Politically it is part of the Northern Islands Municipality.














BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP152009
800 PM CHST TUE SEP 15 2009

...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES THE MARIANAS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. TYPHOON CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SAIPAN. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SAIPAN.

AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT  70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
              35 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
             185 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
             195 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN
             255 MILES NORTH OF ROTA AND
             305 MILES NORTH OF GUAM.

SUPER TYPHOON CHOI-WAN IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. A SLIGHT
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER. SUPER TYPHOON
CHOI-WAN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CHST POSITION...LATITUDE 17.8 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 145.4 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 150 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 PM THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 2 AM CHST WEDNESDAY.

$$

STANKO



000
WTPQ81 PGUM 141712
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN (15W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
312 AM CHST TUE SEP 15 2009

...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE IN TINIAN...SAIPAN AND NORTHERN
ISLANDS IN THE CNMI AND SURROUNDING WATERS OUT TO 45 MILES.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TINIAN IS CANCELED AS OF 2 AM CHST.

THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN IS CANCELED AS OF 2 AM
CHST.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SAIPAN REMAINS IN EFFECT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
AGRIHAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON-FORCE WINDS
OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...TYPHOON CHOI-WAN WAS CENTERED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.3 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...140 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TINIAN...140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN...205 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN...200 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROTA AND 255 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHOI-WAN
IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THE TYPHOON IS EXPECTED TO
PASS VERY CLOSE TO ALAMAGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON CHOI-WAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH SURF WILL POUND LOCAL
REEFS AND BEACHES. HIGH WINDS WILL BLOW AWAY LOOSE OBJECTS LEFT
OUTDOORS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY BE
COMPLETE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AROUND 9 AM CHST...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

GUZ004-PMZ154-150100-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TY.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CON.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SAIPAN-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
312 AM CHST TUE SEP 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
CHOI-WAN IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST. THIS MEANS SAIPAN WILL BE SPARED
THE WORST OF ITS FURY...BUT THIS LEAVES AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN MORE
AT RISK THAN EVER.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SOON OCCUR. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE AT AGRIHAN AND ALAMAGAN. STAY IN SHELTER UNTIL THE
ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN. EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND MOVE INSIDE.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PORT AND WELL SECURED. CAPTAINS
OF SMALL CRAFT AND THEIR CREWS SHOULD ALREADY BE SAFELY WITHIN
LAND BASED SHELTERS.

&&

...WINDS...
AS CHOI-WAN PASSES SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM NOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR SAIPAN...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE WEST THIS
MORNING THEN TURN SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ALAMAGAN AND
AGRIHAN...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...TURN EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT ALAMAGAN
IF THE EYE OF CHOI-WAN COMES NEAR. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON SAIPAN...ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON ALAMAGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE AS CHOI-WAN PASSES...WITH HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 11 FEET
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 12 TO 15 FEET
TONIGHT. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM TUESDAY WHICH IS ALSO
ABOUT THE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO ALAMAGAN.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STORM
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AT SAIPAN WITH 6 TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE AT ALAMAGAN AND AGRIHAN.

$$

GUZ003-PMZ153-141815-
/X.CAN.PGUM.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/X.CAN.PGUM.TY.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
TINIAN-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-
312 AM CHST TUE SEP 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...TYPHOON WATCH IS CANCELLED...

...NEW INFORMATION...
CHOI-WAN IS NOW MOVING NORTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND WIND
WILL MISS TINIAN. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE CANCELED AND REPLACED WITH LESSER ADVISORIES. SEE
THE NPWMY AND MWWGUM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SAFE HARBOR UNTIL WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE. FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT WHO ARE IN DISTRESS...OR SEE
SOMEONE ELSE IN DISTRESS...RADIO YOUR SITUATION ACCORDING TO
MARITIME PROTOCOL. IF APPROPRIATE...DEPLOY YOUR EMERGENCY DISTRESS
BEACON.

&&

...WINDS...
AS CHOI-WAN MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MARIANAS...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AT TINIAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STILL BE
ELEVATED SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO UP INSTEAD.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE AND INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE HIGH TIDE IS
POSSIBLE AS CHOI-WAN PASSES...WITH HAZARDOUS SURF OF 7 TO 10 FEET
ALONG WEST FACING REEFS THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 10 TO 13 FEET
TONIGHT. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED AROUND 6 PM TUESDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

$$





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Super Typhoon Choi-Wan (ADT at Cat5) - JAC, 9/15/2009, 7:38 am
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