Re: The Year of Not Much?
Posted by LawKat on 8/3/2010, 2:53 pm
Doud:

I respect your position, but it IS only August 3rd.  In an average season, the basin would have only seen 3 storms by now, perhaps only 2.  An average  has 11 named storms.

I would say that by the end of the month, if we stand at only 4-5 named storms, an average season is still on tap.

That's the quantity argument.

Alex was a Cat 2, and we've had two weak tropical storms.  Every season has a fair number of weak tropical storms.  The statistic is that somewhere in the neighborhood of 80% of the season's hurricanes occur between August 15 and October 1.  Nothing remarkable or unremarkable about the current progression.

That's the quality argument.

The winds are rough upstairs, BUT they were rough in 2007 and 2008.  You remember Dean, Felix,  Ike and Gustav?  Occurred in seasons that had substantial wind shear across the basin.

I do think 14-23 is getting to be out of range, but recall that 2004 started late and ended late, with lots of bang in between.

Again, I think you are on to something, but I want to see how August plays out.

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The Year of Not Much? - DougInBrevardForce10, 8/3/2010, 12:35 pm
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