Re: Why Earth may be entering a new Ice Age
Posted by Tim_NC on 12/8/2010, 7:55 pm
Only a fool would suggest the earth hasn't warmed over the last century (with a correlating rise in sea-level.) But there's much to learn about climate and I see no reason to study all sides as much as possible. (I've read dozens and dozens of articles.)

One interesting point I've discovered is that the effect of CO2 is logarithmic (not surprising actually, since so much of nature is logarithmic. To double the direct effect of CO2 one doesn't double the CO2, one squares it. That is, to double the insulating effect of 300ppm we don't go to 600ppm; we need go to 90,000ppm. (The fear of rising CO2 isn't the insulation effect; it's the fear of increasing cloud cover and the insulation that would create.)

The more I study, the more I see how horribly complex the whole problem is; and I don't make personal assumptions without some degree of understanding (which is why I've struggled so with AGW since first being taught in school about it (in the 1960s.)

I've known about global warming for 45 years. Not only have none of our earlier dire predictions come true; I don't happen to think a little warming is bad in the first place.

Researching the various global temperature time-lines (modern times through multiple geologic time scales) it's clear the earth's temperature is never static. Not only will each millenia have different temperatures, each century will! (Sunspots also may vary on centuries-long time scales.)

Considering the earth is not temperature-static; we have a choice between warming and cooling. I don't know about the rest of you but I'll take a warming earth over a cooling one any time. Yes, sea-levels will rise and people will have to adjust...but it in my book, that beats mass starvation from failed crops.

As for man's contribution (or lack thereof), it's already baked in the pie. The CO2 is already there; and there's no technology to quickly remove it. In the 1960s everyone thought they'd "know for sure" by 2000. Well, it's now 2010 and we're saying "we'll know for sure by 2030." Will we? Or will the planet continue to confound us. I wouldn't be afraid to wager on the later.

Best wishes,

Tim in NC

P.S. I also believe that several centuries from now we'll be reasonably able to control the climate. Yes, I have that much faith in mankind.

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Why Earth may be entering a new Ice Age - ArgosyTn, 12/7/2010, 11:17 am
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