What would be OUR track forecast?
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/25/2011, 10:06 pm
It's been a very tough storm for NHC, considering the model performance and the population areas potentially impacted. If we could see it objectively for just a minute and didn't have to consider the cost of complacency what WOULD our own internal models in our heads forecast? NHC has some pressures and responsibilities that may not let them be purely objective. For the sake of discussion, ignore all of that and think of your real track forecast.
Mine from Monday really hasn't changed much. It was: "So, my take is straight NW and looking for signs of a H to nudge her west into the Bahamas that I don't think is coming. Cat 2-3 on that track with some scary bursts near 4 (and pretty sats) when she hits the gulf stream....Threatening Charleston but brushing M.B. and the banks as the High finally shows up with her west of it. I'd really be surprised by a westerly track in the near future that has been the S-R forecast for days and days and we have only seen sporadically, only to be neutralized by those latitude gains."
NW was a bad choice of words and meant to continue the 295+ that she was maintaining. Something, probably the steering currents, did nudge her west into the Bahamas a little sooner off PR than I would have expected. The intensity is about what I noted (maybe sooner) and I still think we will see some strengthening near cat 4 above the Bahamas. She HAS made a lot of turn already; more than I would have thought by now. But she has done it after that nudge west, so the position is not that different. I still expect her to near Charleston about as close as I ever did. Now, she won't need such a turn to brush MB and the OB, which is exactly what I still expect. The HWFI is darned good and has been for this storm. It's turning sooner than I would have thought independently, but she has been ON it for quite a while and I think it will continue. I'm having a hard time buying the tail end of the forecast and that catch/miss trough business. Yet, I understand that we have to clearly allow that possibility because of the potential impact. As with the earlier "west-to-Miami" GFDL though, we wouldn't buy that on its own merits, I don't think.
Plenty of storms DO come N INTO NC and this one still may, but I don't think so. Not many hug the coast into the NY area or even New England and I just am not ready to conclude that this one will. 30% into N.C......Less than 15% of touching DelMarVa or Jersey.....25% of Nantucket or West....Of course, I feel like a freak for going against the grain, but it's just what I see. It's better if I am right, though.
NOTE that I'm talking about the center. Impact is another matter and I defer to those with much more knowledge of that. I also concede her size and windfield in that regard. It's just the "into Biscayne Bay", "over Wall St." and "downtown Baltimore" stuff that has-been and is asking a lot of conditions working out just a certain way. Just about the entire east coast is going to know firsthand that she existed, but I just don't see the absolute catastrophy that I read so much about here. Nobody above Norfolk is prepared for any of it and not enough below there, but we talk science and objectivity here under normal conditions. It's even more important when the chips are down. There is plenty of media for hype and the track models and possibilities are endless. What has this storm done and what is it likely to do? I have no technical credibility; many of you do. Let's hear it. For just a minute in this one topic, let's leave the complacency vs. false alarm questions in the hands of NHC and analyze this storm.
Sure don't mind being corrrected/reprimanded for the opinions, though. I get to have one but...
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What would be OUR track forecast? - TuffyE, 8/25/2011, 10:06 pm Post A Reply
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