Re: What would be OUR track forecast?
Posted by
beachman80 on 8/28/2011, 1:52 pm
I thought this storm was going to go more westerly, mainly because I thought land was going to weaken it, and weak storms have a tendency to drift more west. I think that's what the GFDL was thinking early on as well. But as soon as I saw this thing go north of Hispanola, I saw the outer banks as a target. The NHC really missed the early portion of the forecast.
I'll never make a prediction into North Florida, Georgia or even South Carolina until it happens again. Over the last 22 years, I can't think of a hurricane that went into those regions. For North Florida and Georgia, much longer than 22 years. The trend since Hugo has really been storms that come from the east north of PR either ram into South Florida and enter the gulf, turn into North Carolina or turn out to sea. To my knowledge, I don't know of any that have hit Jacksonville or Savannah or South Carolina. Floyd was supposed to go into Jax. I remember cause I was living there at the time. And even that one found a way to somehow miss and then miss SC and hit Wilmington.
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