Re: What would be OUR track forecast?
Posted by
TuffyE on 8/28/2011, 12:53 pm
I'll just critique my OWN mistakes.
What I seriously missed was that turn to just about due North for 90 miles before landfall in N.C.. I'd note that the models and NHC called for it after N.C. and that's what I really could not buy...a storm losing strength, gaining speed, and turning to the left. I'm not sure why she did it when she did, but that should have been more predictable. This "shift" to the left before resuming the 20 degrees or so track was a biggie that was beyond me. This interaction and the dry air that SC contributed at that point ultimately killed her and saved a lot of trouble for the population centers. The old track may have been MORE impactful. It was the FIRST trough that "bypassed" her?
As many have noted, the rain effects are going to matter. I don't think N.C. would be discounting wind damage right now, either. Still, she was over-hyped and I suspect that NYC and Philly will be that much more resistant to pushing-the-button next time. The models and forecasting would have been more convincing without that early stuff about Miami costing so much credibility.
Anyway, it was interesting and I hope we all learn from the modeling and forecasting experience. They are powerful and many in NC and other areas HAVE been seriously affected...and it could have been MUCH worse. |
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