Super Typhoon Utor now 150 mph (1 minute sustained), gusting to 185 mph according to JTWC
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/11/2013, 10:53 am
Unfortunately, radar has historically not been easily accessible to the public in the Philippines. Last year there was even a Facebook page pleading for them to release imagery. They finally did last year and there are still many areas lacking in the availability of imagery to the public, in real time.
Latest discussion (15Z on 11th):
"WDPN31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 11W (UTOR)
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (UTOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXCEPTIONALLY SYMMETRICAL AS THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FURTHER DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER AROUND A
13-NM PIN-HOLE EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS
BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND PGTW RANGING FROM 127
TO 140 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. COMPLEMENTING THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS THE VERY WARM ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS POISED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE ISLAND OF LUZON SHORTLY AFTER TAU 06 AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PPREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 11W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH
TAU 72. IT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF LUZON BETWEEN TAU 06 AND TAU 18. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AFTER REEMERGING OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DISCUSSED IN PARA 2. HOWEVER, DECREASING SSTS AND
CHANGING UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 36. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72 WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG.
C. STY UTOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLIGHTLY POLEWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS
A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE STEERING RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY END OF FORECAST. THERE IS
A TIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG THE NUMERIC FORECAST TRACK MODELS, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID VERY CLOESE TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. //
NNNN"
From "Prognostic Reasoning": http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
Jeff Masters on this storm:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2485 |
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