Re: Super Typhoon Usagi
Posted by hanna on 9/20/2013, 9:22 pm
Skip Wiley it looks like you could be correct.  The JMA and the Navy did see the weakening look at my 10:17 am post. Still predicted to remain  a category 4, 125 kts/143.847mph @ 21/06Z but weaker.  The JMA has made changes in wind speed/ gusts and intensity time wise for the most part the track remains the same, the same can be said for the Navy.  BTW nice floater for now there are green (high top clods but no indication of height).  The eye keeps opening and closing in the loop, because of the EWRC?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17W/flash-ft-long.html

TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 21:40 UTC, 20 September 2013
Analyses at 20/21 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E122°05'(122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 21/09 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°05'(21.1°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 21/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E117°55'(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E114°10'(114.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°40'(23.7°)
E109°40'(109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)






Oh btw the JMA and the Navy are tracking another.  The JMA is calling it a TD I don't think the Navy (98W.INVEST) has had a chance to update yet.

Too soon to get any news regarding how badly the islands have been hit.  If someone sees any reports please post them.
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17W.USAGI/TY 1319 (USAGI) quite the monster and heading toward Hong Kong. - hanna, 9/20/2013, 10:17 am
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