Bob Henson's post today
Posted by
cypresstx on 10/6/2018, 7:53 pm
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Caribbean-Disturbance-Eyeing-Central-Gulf-Coast
a piece of it, full post at the link
Vertical wind shear is strong (around 25 knots), especially toward the north of 91L, where a strong subtropical jet stream is predicted to shift northward. If 91L moves slowly enough, then the subtropical jet could help support and ventilate the storm rather than tearing it apart. Overall, the shear affecting 91L is predicted to gradually decrease into the moderate range of 10 20 knots by early next week. Moreover, 91L will be passing over very warm water untouched by recent tropical storms or hurricanes. Sea surface temperatures are running between 29C and 30C (84-86F) across the northwest Caribbean and eastern Gulf, which is 1-2C (2-4F) above average for this time of year. The disturbance will likely be north of the very deep oceanic heat content over the Northwest Caribbean before it becomes very organized, but it could take advantage of deep oceanic heat in the Gulf
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