there's been chatter on our local board
Posted by cypresstx on 8/19/2020, 1:09 pm
of course, everyone is a bit jittery - just try to focus on the expert's analysis & not worry too much. that's always the worst thing about cane season, so much time to worry (usually) before you know where it ends up

this is from a local flood control met, from our board early this AM - always, listen to experts at NHC, but I value his opinion as well, he's not one to hype things

97L:
The tropical wave remains as well defined and sharp wave axis moving westward into the central Caribbean Sea this morning. There is little indication that any sort of low level center has formed with this wave and convection remains disorganized and scattered within and around the wave axis. Little development of this feature is expected today or even on Thursday, but as the wave reaches slightly more favorable conditions on Friday in the western Caribbean Sea, development chances will begin to increase and NHC is currently indicating an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation with this wave over the next 5 daysmainly in the western Caribbean Sea.

Over the weekend into early next week, model guidance continues to greatly divergence on what will eventually happen with 97L. The large scale trough currently over the US Gulf coast providing Texas with its hot yet much drier air mass will begin to break down by late this weekend as the sub-tropical ridge builds westward from the SW Atlantic into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By early next week the mammoth western US ridge begins to weaken slightly allowing the remains of the trough along the Gulf coast to move westward over coastal Texas and form a shear axis or weakness along its SE flank. Over the weekend 97L will likely be over the northwest Caribbean Sea or entering the southern Gulf of Mexico on a general WNW to NW movement. How quickly 97L develops and moves will determine the steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico. A faster and stronger system would likely track more toward the north sooner and potentially toward the central or NE Gulf of Mexico similar to the HWRF guidance while a weaker and slower system would likely track more toward the west/northwest Gulf. Will nod toward the weaker and slower system for now and bring a tropical system into the western Gulf by the early to mid part of next week.

While the GFS and ECWMF show little development with 97L, the CMC, ICON, HWRF, and NAVGEM show significant development once over the Gulf of Mexico.

97L should be monitored closely over the next several days.

Josh's chase partner posts on our local board & is also chiming in from time to time, keeping an eye on it.

also - CSU postsed a 2-week outlook: https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1296117897547280384

CSU has released 2-week forecast for Atlantic #hurricane activity and calls for above-normal activity for 8/19-9/1. Combination of hurricane-enhancing seasonal and subseasonal conditions are predicted to lead to an active period.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-0819.pdf
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Hurricane in Gulf Aug. 23 ? - AlligatorPointer, 8/18/2020, 7:49 pm
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