Re: long range uncertainty
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/20/2020, 8:23 am
I was just about to post about that first paragraph you put in bold.

That paragraph from the NHC in the 5am Thursday NHC discussion is worth reading. It is important to note that the GFS no longer shows it degenerating into an open wave. I do like to read the NHC discussions for context on things and since they mention:

"The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h."

It should be pointed out now. I thought maybe they would wait until it was a little more developed before talking about those, but since they are already that is worth mentioning.

I really hate posting them right now, but here they are:

HMON:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon&region=13L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn

HWRF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=13L&pkg=ref

I don't usually put too much weight on those until something is a little bit more developed, but again since the NHC mentions them I will.

The NHC discussions are EXTREMELY important. Any meteorologist that doesn't communicate the uncertainty that the NHC puts out, when they do, is really doing harm. Usually the TV stations I see in Tampa do good communicating that kind of thing.

As for the track, I like to look at the GFS ensemble members:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=watl&pkg=lowlocs
Not so much on intensity, but for track. If they were all close together, more certain where it is going to go. The further apart they get, more uncertainty. A number of 05 is pressure of 1005mb. 95 would be 995mb. 85 would be 985mb.

As for the NHC error cone, some people still don't get, even some meteorologists I've seen, that the cone is not based on the models or uncertainty.

About the cone:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml





Satellite:
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132020



I'm about to get snarky too. I just noticed NASA no longer lets people embed their satellite data in a frame. That makes this page completely useless now:

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/

Unless you select what you want and then click "Remove Frame". I probably spent months on that over the years. Oh well, lol.

Direct link to infrared:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband13&lat=15&lon=-58&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=600&height=400&zoom=2&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&palette=ir2.pal

Visible:

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastfullDiskband02&lat=16.5&lon=-56.5&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1000&height=450&zoom=4&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=white&palette=ir1.pal

Edit: I emailed NASA to see if that change they made was on purpose or not. They could have done it accidentally. I'll see what they say.
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Hurricane in Gulf Aug. 23 ? - AlligatorPointer, 8/18/2020, 7:49 pm
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