Re: Marco seems to be going toward FL Panhandle
Posted by
Beachlover on 8/24/2020, 3:09 am
Please, people! I see nothing in the latest update to indicate any significant change in the forecast landfall of the center of circulation (BBM):
000
WTNT34 KNHC 240549
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Marco Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
100 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2020
...A WEAKER MARCO CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 87.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude
27.2 North, longitude 87.9 West. Marco is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northwest
is expected later this morning. Marco is forecast to approach the
coast of Louisiana this afternoon, and then turn westward and move
near or over the coast through Tuesday.
Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24
hours, but Marco is forecast to weaken rapidly by early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City LA...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Intracoastal City...1-3 ft
Ocean Springs MS to the AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions, primarily in gusts, are still possible
within the hurricane warning area by midday, with tropical
storm conditions likely by midday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area by the afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch areas
late today.
RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across
portions of the northeast and north-central Gulf coast through
Tuesday. This rainfall may result in areas of flash, urban and
small stream flooding along the area.
SURF: Swells generated by Marco are likely to affect portions of
the northern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle today and tonight.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
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