Re: Here we go
Posted by
JAC on 1/21/2011, 8:20 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 431 AM EST FRI JAN 21 2011
*POTENTIAL MAJOR WINTER STORM NEXT WED/THU
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD NOW SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL MAJOR STORM AROUND MID WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH ITS 00Z RUN AND IS NOW ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THE GGEM IS STILL WAY SLOWER BECAUSE IT DIGS THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE LIFTING IT TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS PER THE PREEPD...THAT SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AS LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN THIS WINTER SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MANY DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR AN EVENT THAT IS STILL AT LEAST 5 OR 6 DAYS AWAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SIGNALING A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM ALREADY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MANY OF THE DETAILS WILL AGAIN INVOLVE THE TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD EVIDENCE THAT A FAIRLY POWERFUL STORM MAY EVOLVE FROM JUST THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH COPIOUS GULF AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC MOISTURE. THE ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE HAS GOTTEN SOMEWHAT COLDER WITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS AND IS COLDER THAN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS. INCLINED TO THINK THE COLDER PROFILE MAY MAKE SENSE GIVEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF ARCTIC AIR RESIDENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. NONETHELESS...WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE TRACK WILL BE A DETERMINING FACTOR. FOR NOW...GOING WITH PTYEP OF SNOW ESSENTIAL ALONG AND NW OF THE BOS-PVD CORRIDOR AND RAIN OR SNOW TO THE SE. HAVE KEPT POPS IN CHANCE RANGE DUE TO HOW FAR OUT IN TIME...BUT INCREASED A LITTLE AND ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE PROBABLE SLOWER TIMING FROM PRIOR RUNS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND HIGH WINDS. ASTRO TIDES HAVE COME DOWN SINCE PAST THE FULL MOON BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...IF EITHER THE 00Z ECMWF OR 00Z GFS SOLUTION COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING.
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In this thread:
Heads up Fred -
JAC,
1/20/2011, 1:12 pm- GFS backs off a little this morning - JAC, 1/22/2011, 8:45 am
- FIM - JAC, 1/21/2011, 10:23 pm
- Re: FIM - Conclue, 1/22/2011, 12:09 am
- Re: Heads up Fred - Conclue, 1/21/2011, 5:44 pm
- Coming at ya Fred - JAC, 1/21/2011, 2:06 pm
- Re: Heads up Fred - Fred, 1/21/2011, 8:04 am
- Here we go - JAC, 1/21/2011, 7:55 am
- Re: Heads up Fred - Fred, 1/20/2011, 2:39 pm
- 12Z Euro bombs it inside the benchmark - JAC, 1/20/2011, 1:40 pm
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