KALB LT Discussion
Posted by Conclue on 1/21/2011, 6:21 pm
This is my mentor at NWS. He know's his ....

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM
THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.  AN
OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED
TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF
A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.  THE NAO IS
ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL.  CSTAR RESEARCH
WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A
NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL
MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE.  THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS
STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM
IN THAT PRODUCT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  LOWS
WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20
BELOW TO THE NORTH.  MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN
GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTHEAST.  SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE
TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY.  LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS
MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE
OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.  WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF
SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE
NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE.  THE GFS HAS
TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE
ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF
AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE
ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME
MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE
COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.
AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE
ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.

THU...BACK LASH SNOW SHOWERS AND PCPN WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BASED ON THE ECMWF...AND HPC.  WE KEPT A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST.  A COLD FRONT COMES CRASHING THROUGH WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH
TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN COLDER THAN NORMAL.  SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL
HINGING ON THE MID WEEK POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM.-- End Changed Discussion --
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Heads up Fred - JAC, 1/20/2011, 1:12 pm
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