KALB LT Discussion
Posted by
Conclue on 1/21/2011, 6:21 pm
This is my mentor at NWS. He know's his ....
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM FEATURES A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST SNOWSTORM THAT LOOKS TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AN OVERVIEW OF THE LARGE SCALE TELECONNECTION INDICES FOR THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME DEPICT A STRONG +PNA...COUPLED WITH AN -AO INDICATIVE OF A HIGH AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. THE NAO IS ACTUALLY WEAKLY NEGATIVE...AND TRENDING NEUTRAL. CSTAR RESEARCH WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY 5-7 YEARS AGO HAS SHOWN A +PNA WITH A NEUTRAL TRENDING NAO PATTERN CAN BE A WARNING FLAG FOR A POTENTIAL MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER CYCLONE. THE ALY FCST OFFICE HAS HAD THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM IN THAT PRODUCT.
MONDAY NIGHT...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND. LOWS WILL BE 0 TO 10 BELOW FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...AND 10 TO 20 BELOW TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS MOVING OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND THE NRN GULF...WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TUESDAY...THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...GEFS MEAN...AND HPC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION/NORTHEAST...AS AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEEP SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION MAY ERUPT OVER FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY...AS A STRONG H500 UPPER TROUGH CARVES OUT OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. LATE TUE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE SRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT...WE HAVE FOLLOWED AN HPC/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO FOR A MILLER TYPE-A WINTER CYCLONE TO FORM NEAR THE SC/GA COAST TUE NIGHT. OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...AS COLD AIR DAMMING CONTINUES WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH SLOWLY RETREATING EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WE PLACED LOW CHANCES OF SNOW FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...AND SLIGHT CHANCES TO THE NORTH...AS IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE. THE GFS HAS TROUBLE PHASING THE ENERGY ON WED FOR THE MAJOR CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF...CAN GGEM...AND HPC RIDING THE STORM ALONG THE EAST COAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT A POTENTIAL 1-2"+ INCH QPF EVENT IF THE ECMWF AND CAN GGEM IS RIGHT. THE 12Z GFS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER WITH THE ERN MOST TRACK OF THE ENVELOPE OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS. WE HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHC POPS WED-WED NIGHT. THIS STORM MAY HAVE SOME MIX PCPN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...IF IT HUGS THE COAST. WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM FROM THE E/NE ACCORDING TO ECMWF AT 50-70 KTS.
THU...BACK LASH SNOW SHOWERS AND PCPN WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY BASED ON THE ECMWF...AND HPC. WE KEPT A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT COMES CRASHING THROUGH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.
THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO RUN COLDER THAN NORMAL. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST WELL WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...TEMPS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL...AND PCPN ABOVE NORMAL HINGING ON THE MID WEEK POTENTIAL EAST COAST STORM.-- End Changed Discussion --
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In this thread:
Heads up Fred -
JAC,
1/20/2011, 1:12 pm- GFS backs off a little this morning - JAC, 1/22/2011, 8:45 am
- FIM - JAC, 1/21/2011, 10:23 pm
- Re: FIM - Conclue, 1/22/2011, 12:09 am
- Re: Heads up Fred - Conclue, 1/21/2011, 5:44 pm
- Coming at ya Fred - JAC, 1/21/2011, 2:06 pm
- Re: Heads up Fred - Fred, 1/21/2011, 8:04 am
- Here we go - JAC, 1/21/2011, 7:55 am
- Re: Heads up Fred - Fred, 1/20/2011, 2:39 pm
- 12Z Euro bombs it inside the benchmark - JAC, 1/20/2011, 1:40 pm
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