Stay safe CX.. Here's what SPC is saying for Michigan
Posted by JAC on 2/1/2011, 10:16 pm




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0628 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2011
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI
 
  CONCERNING...BLIZZARD
 
  VALID 020028Z - 020530Z
 
  LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND STRONG/GUSTY
  WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP
  ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND CNTRL LOWER MI. WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL RATES OF
  ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON BUT COME PORTIONS OF CNTRL MI COULD
  SEE RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR.
 
  00Z SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A MATURE AND
  IMPRESSIVE EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH
  HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA AND IL. AN
  850 MB LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. LOUIS AT 00Z AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
  SHOWED A DRY SLOT SURGING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL IL AS A MID LEVEL WARM
  CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUED TO ADVECT MOISTURE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE
  SYSTEM. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NEWD...STRONG 850 MB
  FRONTOGENETIC BAND OVER CNTRL IL/IND WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT
  ACROSS LOWER MI. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING MID LEVEL JET /AROUND
  40 KT/ AND APPROACHING VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL AID IN FORCING FOR
  ASCENT THROUGH DEEP...SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. FORECAST
  SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LIMITED CAPE IN THE DENDRITC ZONE...BUT MOST
  IS ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN A
  MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF
  CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS/BANDED PRECIPITATION THAT WOULD INCREASE
  RATES.
 
  EXPECT HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO PICK UP BY 03Z WITH 2-3
  INCH PER RATES BY 06Z ACROSS CNTRL LOWER MI AND CONTINUING THROUGH
  MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
 
  ..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/02/2011
 
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Megastorm cranking up - JAC, 2/1/2011, 8:14 am
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